新型城镇化对消费需求影响的实证研究.doc

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摘要:新型城镇化是当前我国拉动消费的关键,从某种意义上说,工业化是创造供给,城镇化则主要是创造需求。实践表明,我国的城镇化率每增加1%,就可拉动当年国内生产总值增长1%-2%,城镇化已经成为决定我国经济增长的关键性因素。加快推进城镇化发展,是现阶段解决“三农”难题最直接、最有效的方式,是统筹城乡区域全面协调可持续发展的重要抓手。

   由于目前我们国家需要扩大消费需求,保持经济的稳定增长,所以研究城镇化对消费需求的影响就十分有必要了。本文首先分析了我国新型城镇化建设的现状和新型城镇化在提高居民收入、推动消费结构升级等方面对扩大消费需求的积极作用,然后列出了目前我国城镇化建设中还存在着诸如户籍、社保、土地流转制度不完善等一些不利于消费需求增长的问题。在此基础上,从定量的角度,采用向量自回归分析模型,运用脉冲响应函数对我国城镇化和全国消费水平进行了动态性研究,得出了合理加快城镇化建设对扩大消费水平起到决定性作用。最后,根据上述的实证研究,提出政府要积极实施推进户籍制度改革、完善社保制度和土地流转制度等一系列有利于提高城镇化水平、扩大居民消费需求的对策和建议。

关键词:新型城镇化 消费需求 向量自回归模型 脉冲响应函数

 

ABSTRACT:New type of urbanization is the key to the current consumption in our country, in a sense, industrialization is the creation of supply, the urbanization is mainly to create demand. Practice shows that, China's urbanization rate increases 1%, they can pull the GDP growth of 1%-2%, the urbanization has become the key factor of economic growth in China. Accelerating the urbanization development, solve "three agriculture" problem at present stage is the most direct, the most effective way to balance urban and rural areas is the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development key.

   Because at present our country needs to expand consumer demand, maintain the stability of economic growth, so the urbanization's impact on consumer demand are very necessary. This article first analyzes the current situation of the construction of new urbanization and new urbanization in improving people's income, promote the consumption structure upgrade, etc to expand the positive role of consumer demand, and then lists the present our country still exist in the construction of urbanization, such as household registration, social security, land circulation system is not perfect and so on some of the problems of bad for consumer demand growth. On this basis, from the quantitative point of view, using vector autoregression analysis model, using the impulse response function to our country urbanization and national consumption level has carried on the dynamic research, concluded that the reasonable speed up the urbanization construction play a decisive role in expanding consumption level. Finally, based on the above empirical research, puts forward the government should actively promote the reform of household registration system, to perfect the social security system and land circulation system and a series of beneficial to raise the level of urbanization and expand consumer demand countermeasures and Suggestions.

Keywords: New urbanization;Consumer demand;Vector autoregressive model;Impulse response function

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